Credo
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,242
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Post by Credo on Nov 6, 2019 22:08:50 GMT -8
If the 2016 election taught us anything, it's that polling is anything but exact. Almost all the polls oversample Democrats and subsequently underestimate Trump's support. Even when the methodology is better, the "hidden Trump voter" is worth about 3%. As far as polls showing Trump losing to any hypothetical candidates, let's see what they were saying at this time 4 years ago:
Polls at one point in 1984 also showed Walter Mondale leading Ronald Reagan by 10 points. So much for predictions.
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Post by vilepagan on Nov 7, 2019 4:39:32 GMT -8
Yet the polls are all we have...except the predictions of those like you who get their news from Twitter...are we supposed to believe your tweets rather than the polls? I think not.
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MDDad
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,814
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Post by MDDad on Nov 7, 2019 8:51:06 GMT -8
Almost all the polls oversample Democrats and subsequently underestimate Trump's support. I don't think that's true. Any poll conducted professionally, while its sample selections are random, still makes those selections from within geographic, demographic, gender and party percentages. I think the real reason Trump supporters are undercounted is not because Democrats are oversampled, but rather because just like in 2016, a percentage of Trump supporters are reluctant to indicate whom they prefer. |
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davidsf
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 5,252
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Post by davidsf on Nov 7, 2019 8:59:15 GMT -8
Almost all the polls oversample Democrats and subsequently underestimate Trump's support. I don't think that's true. Any poll conducted professionally, while its sample selections are random, still makes those selections from within geographic, demographic, gender and party percentages. I think the real reason Trump supporters are undercounted is not because Democrats are oversampled, but rather because just like in 2016, a percentage of Trump supporters are reluctant to indicate whom they prefer. I think there’s probably some of that sample bias involved, too, but over the years (probably beginning back when those polls showed Mondale with a 10% lead over Reagan), I’ve grown too cynical to believe the polling end of the otherwise biased media is un-biased. |
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Credo
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,242
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Post by Credo on Nov 7, 2019 9:12:51 GMT -8
Almost all the polls oversample Democrats and subsequently underestimate Trump's support. I don't think that's true. Any poll conducted professionally, while its sample selections are random, still makes those selections from within geographic, demographic, gender and party percentages. I think the real reason Trump supporters are undercounted is not because Democrats are oversampled, but rather because just like in 2016, a percentage of Trump supporters are reluctant to indicate whom they prefer. That's why I included the sentence immediately after the one quoted above: Even when the methodology is better, the "hidden Trump voter" is worth about 3%.I'll bet it may be even more today after three years of non-stop media demonizing of the man and his supporters as virtual Nazis with white hoods. |
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Post by vilepagan on Nov 7, 2019 9:48:42 GMT -8
And you eat babies. Don't forget that.
Isn't it interesting that you decry the hyperbole of the "left" but you use the most outrageous examples everyday in your own posts.
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Credo
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,242
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Post by Credo on Nov 7, 2019 19:54:51 GMT -8
I guess if "the polls are all we have".......
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