davidsf
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Post by davidsf on Dec 15, 2021 7:41:38 GMT -8
Electric Vehicles (EV) are all the rage right now. To me, it is a fool's folly: Not only do we (meaning the earth) not have enough electricity to charge all the cars should a mass movement to EV occur, but charging them, now, requires the use of fossil fuels to generate the electricity. Further, in its current stage of development, EV are useless for lengthy car trips: Two or three hours driving, followed by an hour or two charging (unless you can find the rare quick-charge station); and EV get only 200-300 MPC (miles per charge), making, say, a car trip from Illinois to California a week-long journey instead of the 2 1/2 day trip I made in '97. So, let's assemble your thoughts on EV. If you are a futurist, what do you see in the future for Electric Vehicles? Here's one woman's opinion to get us started: No One Cares About Your Electric Car: Shut up about it already.
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MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Dec 15, 2021 9:22:50 GMT -8
One thing I remember from my high school Physics class is that every conversion of energy entails some energy loss. For example, an internal combustion engine produces much more energy than it takes to move your car, and the excess energy is lost as heat and noise. If the potential energy contained in a gallon of gas could all be delivered directly to the car's wheels, you might get a hundred miles per gallon, instead of the 25 you get now. Energy conversion is very inefficient.
Now think of all the energy conversions (and loss) it takes to generate electricty, transport it, store it, and charge your car with it. A gallon of fossil fuel used in that chain will certainly provide many fewer "miles per gallon" to your car's wheels than you would realize if you put that gallon directly in your gas tank.
Furthermore, the technology required to produce the enormous amount of electricity it would take to charge and maintain a nation of electric vehicles does not exist. That's why governors of blue states mandating all-electric vehicles by a year that they have pulled out of their ass is nonsensical. But their virtue-signalling has no current cost, so they will continue to do it because the only thing that really matters is their next election.
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billb
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Post by billb on Dec 15, 2021 11:46:47 GMT -8
Just carry a gas can with you along with an electric generator. Or a diesel generators. Maybe they will come out with portable nuclear generators soon. Don't worry, the experts will say they are safe.
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davidsf
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Post by davidsf on Dec 15, 2021 12:43:50 GMT -8
Just carry a gas can with you along with an electric generator. Or a diesel generators. Maybe they will come out with portable nuclear generators soon. Don't worry, the experts will say they are safe. I was freshly out of the Navy and, with my knowledge of propulsion systems of Naval vessels, I drew out a personal vehicle nuclear propulsion system, on a napkin. If my puny brain can figure that out, actual vehicle manufacturers can figure it out... Nuclear fueled, stem driven cars would mean you only fill it with water every year or so, and it would go forever... or un til the wheels fall off, whichever.
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Luca
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Post by Luca on Dec 18, 2021 14:37:35 GMT -8
I think you have to have driven an electric car enough to see the obvious advantages. Perhaps elsewhere in the country people consider it a virtue signaling device, but in Southern California where there’ are plenty of electric charging stations available it’s just a better way to get around. There’s practically no engine maintenance, they’re safer, the things handle beautifully and they accelerate like a son of a bitch. Of course if you do a lot of long-distance driving it’s not the car you would buy, but if you want to take a leisurely cross-country drive it’s still very doable as long as you plan in advance. These are the kind of things you factor into your decision to buy a car.
The same criticisms could’ve been applied to the advent of automobiles during the horse and buggy era. The things were complicated, fragile, they didn’t have much range and there was no widespread availability of gasoline. But as the advantages of automobiles over horses became more obvious then a gradual evolution and infrastructure began to develop. Cars got better and so will electric vehicles. Batteries will improve as well range and availability of charging stations. There is a pretty good analogy between Henry Ford and Elon Musk.
Of course the switchover from combustion engine two electric vehicles he’s going to be gradual and the infrastructure will develop as the need and demand arises. I don’t know if 2035 is a reasonable deadline but the changeover is inevitably going to occur>………….Luca
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davidsf
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Post by davidsf on Dec 18, 2021 16:29:52 GMT -8
We still have to generate the electricity with which to charge them, which is primarily done, today, with fossil or carbon fuel ( and solar or wind generation IS virtue signaling).
It currently takes an inordinate amount of time to recharge a vehicle (even up to 80%), leaving the driver and passengers in need of something to do (my shopping trips rarely take even 15 minutes).
I do not understand how we will generate enough electricity to “fill” all the electric vehicles once conversion is widespread.
You’re right about repair costs, until it comes time to replace the batteries, when you will catch up in one visit to the facility.
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Luca
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Post by Luca on Dec 18, 2021 17:45:25 GMT -8
I’m not a big fan of wind generation either. But solar power is for real. My house is the 75% solar powered even if I don’t feel very virtuous because it.
Why assume that batteries won’t get better, costs won’t go down, that range won’t improve, that solar panels will not become more widespread and efficient? Or that the environmentalist zealots won’t eventually see the advantage of nuclear power?
If cars never got any better than Stanley Steemers we would still all be riding horses. But electric vehicles will improve and the changeover will inevitably occur. I drove two different Mercedes for about 15 years before an electric car and despite their reputations they were a much bigger pain in the ass than the electric car. My understanding is that the battery is good for about 10 years which is about as long as I’d want to hang onto a car anyway.
You have stock in General Motors, don’t you?
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billb
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Post by billb on Dec 18, 2021 21:20:17 GMT -8
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MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Dec 18, 2021 22:46:12 GMT -8
Whenever I face a subject I don't know much about, like generating enough electricity to power an entire nation of electric automobiles, I prefer to listen to real experts rather than just my peers. My oldest son was an energy trader in Houston for several years before joining the management level at SoCal Edison for several more. He now works locally for a consulting company out of Seattle that provides capacity and portfolio management to many small electricity producers and distributors in the Western United States. Without exception, when the subject of generating enough electricty to power all those cars came up, everyone in those companies just shook their heads and laughed. I can't help but put some stock in their reactions.
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billb
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Post by billb on Dec 19, 2021 0:47:36 GMT -8
One of Biden's brothers got a grant from the federal government when he was VP for solar power generation in the Caribbean Islands somewhere. When I think of solar energy, I think of cronyism and government contracts. I think tax credits for homeowners is a great idea though. Good for you Luca.
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davidsf
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Post by davidsf on Dec 19, 2021 6:29:37 GMT -8
I’m not a big fan of wind generation either. But solar power is for real. My house is the 75% solar powered even if I don’t feel very virtuous because it. Why assume that batteries won’t get better, costs won’t go down, that range won’t improve, that solar panels will not become more widespread and efficient? Or that the environmentalist zealots won’t eventually see the advantage of nuclear power? If cars never got any better than Stanley Steemers we would still all be riding horses. But electric vehicles will improve and the changeover will inevitably occur. I drove two different Mercedes for about 15 years before an electric car and despite their reputations they were a much bigger pain in the ass than the electric car. My understanding is that the battery is good for about 10 years which is about as long as I’d want to hang onto a car anyway. You have stock in General Motors, don’t you? HA, no I don't...and wouldn't purchase since they became an arm of the government under Obama. Of course, you're right about future improvements: That is why I peppered my comments with such qualifiers as "currently." I'm not saying I won't eventually consider EV, but they have an awful lot to overcome before that can happen.
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Luca
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Post by Luca on Dec 19, 2021 12:45:32 GMT -8
I just realized we have inadvertently punned ourselves. You don’t think that "currently" there is sufficient available electricity, and I said I was not a "fan" of wind power. Who can explain such spontaneous comic genius?
Of course, when automobiles were first invented had you told people that to make them available throughout the country we would have to dig huge oil well facilities throughout the world, build enormous 100,000+ ton ships to convey the oil around the world, construct huge seaports, build countless gasoline stations and finance hundreds of thousands of miles of roadways what do suppose the response would have been? It would have been like that of the would-be kamikaze pilot in the back of the room in that old Cheech and Chong skit: "Captain-san, are you out of you fucking mind?”
The days of fossil fuels are coming to an end at some point. We face many shortages that will eventually resolve. We reside on the border of the Pacific Ocean which covers around half the globe and we feel we have a water shortage. There is more energy in my computer screen then there is in the explosive power of both the Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombs combined. Currently (no pun intended) we get our power from fossil fuels, nuclear energy, wind, solar, waves and probably other sources I’ve never heard of. There is no reason to think that eventually we have to get all our power from a single source. There will always be a mixture depending on local economics, but the role of fossil fuel will inevitably decline if for no other reason than diminishing availability. It's a matter of technology and time before we learn how to access and distribute alternate sources of energy. Hell yes, it’s ungodly expensive, but how expensive - to name just one hurdle - has it been for the United States to maintain peace in the Middle East and worldwide access to its oil, for example?
I believe you that 2035 is not a realistic goal for conversion to all electric cars, and for the reasons you state. But look at the extraordinary nationwide charging network that even a single company like Tesla has already made available. It has to happen. And in the meantime I remain far more virtuous than you, you unsophisticated, knuckle dragging troglodyte scum……………Luca
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MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Dec 19, 2021 13:28:20 GMT -8
I don't think anyone denies that technology will inexorably continue to advance, or that alternate forms of mass and personal transportation will become available and affordable. Someday we may drive flying cars like the Jetsons, or have impudent Scots beam us from place to place like in Star Trek.
Rather, what has us shaking our heads and laughing is something entirely different. It's when governors and other politicians, who don't know the difference between a watt and a twat, mandate that we will all drive only electric vehicles by year so-and so. In their ignorance, they might just as well mandate that we must all be able to high jump 20 feet by the same year. Once again, they're simply virtue-signaling with nobody to call them out on how ludicrous they are.
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Luca
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Post by Luca on Dec 19, 2021 15:16:01 GMT -8
The problem with Newsome's pontificating is that by the time 2035 rolls around he'll be long gone and we'll still have people hyperventilating about gas cars. But he can say "What do you want from me ? I passed the law. Not my problem if you guys didn't follow up on it."
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billb
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Post by billb on Dec 22, 2021 19:58:23 GMT -8
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