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Post by ProfessorFate on Dec 28, 2020 21:25:21 GMT -8
I miss my friend RSM789!
Hope he's okay.
Come back RSM!
I'll even say I like Terry Bradshaw! (I do actually).
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Post by vilepagan on Dec 29, 2020 4:21:14 GMT -8
Maybe he's laid up from the Covid which you don't have to protect yourself from and is just a democratic hoax designed to steal away your rights.  |
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Luca
Master Statesman
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Post by Luca on Dec 29, 2020 12:16:39 GMT -8
I didn't know that RSM had gone AWOL. What happened?
By the way, pagan, I don't know if anybody here has called Covid a "hoax" (it isn't) but you should recognize that there are very valid differences in perspective on this virus.
Please bear with me and feel free to correct my statistics where I am in error. As of today in California (where there are approximately 38 million people) we have had a little over 2.1 million documented infections with Covid-19. It may actually be substantially more since there are an unknown number of asymptomatic infections which have not been identified (perhaps as high as 30 to 40% of the total). Or, less likely, it may actually be a little bit less since we don't know how many of those 2.1 million positive tests were repeat tests on the same person that unsurprisingly came back positive again. (For example, before we realized it made no sense to retest ill patients, I personally retested one patient four or five times before her test returned to negative. That alone would be an artificially inflated four positive cases).
Of those 2.2 million, a little under 25,000 have died, just over 1%. Of that 1%+, it is likely 75 to 80% of them were over the age of 65 with comorbid diseases, an assumption based on the national average.
Altogether, this implies that just under 6000 Californians under the age of 65 (of which there are some 32 million) have died, ie 0.019%. For perspective, that is roughly the same number of people who died in California from influenza and pneumonia in 2017, and less than the number who died from drug overdose and homicide.
So, you tell me: Does it make more sense to shut down thousands of small and large businesses with the unavoidable economic devastation and individual poverty, close down elementary and high schools depriving our youth of quality education and socialization and irretrievable childhood/adolescent experiences, close churches/temples/mosques, demand near useless mask requirements on outdoor activity, etc. etc.....
....Or does it make more sense simply to tell the at-risk population to be extremely careful and consider more significant social distancing or even avoidance of others?
You have every right to choose the former, and people who do are entitled to that conclusion. I will leave it to others to rationalize the reason for that choice. But there is nothing cavalier or selfish about those -such as myself - who prefer the logic of the second option.................................Luca
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Post by vilepagan on Dec 29, 2020 12:57:24 GMT -8
I didn't know that RSM had gone AWOL. What happened? By the way, pagan, I don't know if anybody here has called Covid a "hoax" (it isn't) but you should recognize that there are very valid differences in perspective on this virus. I realize that Luca, and I have no information that RSM was infected with the Covid...it was a facetious comment based on RSM's pooh-poohing of the epidemic and our response to the epidemic which as I'm sure you're aware was sporadic at best, and abysmal at worst. Statistics and percentages notwithstanding the whole anti-mask outcry is just selfish stupidity totally unworthy of those who would praise the "greatest generation" for their sacrifices and then gripe about a cloth mask. |
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Luca
Master Statesman
Posts: 1,317
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Post by Luca on Dec 29, 2020 13:32:57 GMT -8
No, it's not selfish stupidity. In many cases I oppose that measure myself. I've given away more time and money than I can count, with 25 years of formal education and 35+ years of medical practice behind me. So I don't consider myself either selfish or stupid.
The evidence regarding the efficacy of masks is weak, and at best its benefit in most situations is marginal. I would agree with you if there were sufficient evidence that it significantly helped the population, but a perusal of the existing evidence seems to indicate that such is not the case.
Look at the statistics I just posted. Given that, to you support the closure of elementary and high schools, shutting down businesses and livelihoods for the marginal benefit achieved?
(Incidentally, I understand and agree with your empathy for the "greatest generation", but understand that the last American who fought in WWII is at least 93 years old today and not actively circulating in public. It's the older baby boomers that represent most of the at risk population. The greatest generation for the most part is no longer with us.)
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thefrog
Eminence Grise
Posts: 1,819
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Post by thefrog on Dec 29, 2020 13:59:00 GMT -8
I’m sure a WW2 veteran would love to hear the endless comparisons of today’s “fight” against Covid to WW2
The comparison is so asinine, it doesn’t even deserve a proper analysis.
Carry on Luca, at least your opinion holds factual backing compared to the troglodyte still posting here.
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MDDad
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,816
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Post by MDDad on Dec 29, 2020 14:13:04 GMT -8
I’m sure a WW2 veteran would love to hear the endless comparisons of today’s “fight” against Covid to WW2 The comparison is so asinine, it doesn’t even deserve a proper analysis. Thank you! |
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Post by vilepagan on Dec 30, 2020 5:12:34 GMT -8
I’m sure a WW2 veteran would love to hear the endless comparisons of today’s “fight” against Covid to WW2 The comparison is so asinine, it doesn’t even deserve a proper analysis. Carry on Luca, at least your opinion holds factual backing compared to the troglodyte still posting here. You don't read very well do you? No comparison was made between the fight against Covid and WWII but you didn't want to comment on what I wrote so you pretended I wrote something I did not. Brilliant. What was compared was the sacrifices made by the 'greatest generation" to the stupid whining about mask wearing. |
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Post by vilepagan on Dec 30, 2020 5:18:27 GMT -8
No, it's not selfish stupidity. In many cases I oppose that measure myself. I've given away more time and money than I can count, with 25 years of formal education and 35+ years of medical practice behind me. So I don't consider myself either selfish or stupid. The evidence regarding the efficacy of masks is weak, and at best its benefit in most situations is marginal. I would agree with you if there were sufficient evidence that it significantly helped the population, but a perusal of the existing evidence seems to indicate that such is not the case. Great. In Japan people routinely wear masks when they go out in public if they only have a cold as a matter of courtesy. You're asking for scientific proof of the masks efficacy before you'll wear one to possibly prevent the spread of a potentially deadly pathogen. Forgive me if I regard this as selfish stupidity but I do. Does not a mask at least lessen the chance of transmitting the disease to others? Luca, you should wear a mask just as an example for others even if its efficacy is in question. |
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Luca
Master Statesman
Posts: 1,317
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Post by Luca on Dec 30, 2020 8:32:18 GMT -8
First off, you did not respond to my question about whether you agree with shutting down elementary and high schools.
If people in Japan wear a mask outdoors when they are sick, that’s reasonable. But that’s not what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about wearing a mask all the time when you’re not at home and not even sick. Hopefully you see why your analogy fails.
Exactly, Pagan. I am asking for proof of efficacy before Requiring people under the age of 65 to wear a mask all the time outside their homes when they are not ill in order to avoid a fatality rate of 0.019% for those under 65.
Do the math: If you do not have Covid, as some 99% don’t at any one time, your chances of transmitting the disease are zero. If you are one of the roughly 1% who presently has Covid, you should quarantine until cleared. If you are one of the 17% of that 1% who has asymptomatic Covid, your viral load is minimal and hence your chances of passing it to others is less than half of what it would otherwise be. And if you are one of those 0.17% who has current asymptomatic infection, you are still talking about an illness that has been a cause of death in only 0.019% of those under the age of 65. So by all means, rather than advise restrictions for the actual at risk population let’s all mask up, all the time despite what statistics tell us. Why bother with facts when you already have an opinion?
Personally, I regard stupidity as arguing a point that you know very little about and don’t take the trouble to study the statistics. But that’s just me.
So, why is it that I ‘should wear a mask just as an example to others even if it’s efficacy is in question?”................Luca
(PS. I have removed one of the statistics since my initial posting since one of my assumptions was incorrect and led to a misleading conclusion)
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Bick
Administrator 
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Post by Bick on Dec 30, 2020 13:01:34 GMT -8
First off, you did not respond to my question about whether you agree with shutting down elementary and high schools. If people in Japan wear a mask outdoors when they are sick, that’s reasonable. But that’s not what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about wearing a mask all the time when you’re not at home and not even sick. Hopefully you see why your analogy fails. Exactly, Pagan. I am asking for proof of efficacy before Requiring people under the age of 65 to wear a mask all the time outside their homes when they are not ill in order to avoid a fatality rate of 0.019% for those under 65. Do the math: If you do not have Covid, as some 99% don’t at any one time, your chances of transmitting the disease are zero. If you are one of the roughly 1% who presently has Covid, you should quarantine until cleared. If you are one of the 17% of that 1% who has asymptomatic Covid, your viral load is minimal and hence your chances of passing it to others is less than half of what it would otherwise be. And if you are one of those 0.17% who has current asymptomatic infection, you are still talking about an illness that has a fatality rate of 0.019% for those under the age of 65. This means that if you are under 65 and standing next to a random person who has no symptoms, your chances of dying from a Covid infection is 0.00323%. So by all means, let’s all mask up, all the time. Why bother with facts when you already have an opinion? Personally, I regard stupidity as arguing a point that you know very little about and don’t take the trouble to study the statistics. But that’s just me. So, why is it that I ‘should wear a mask just as an example to others even if it’s efficacy is in question?”................Luca There's one or two studies that also question the efficacy of masking. swprs.org/face-masks-evidence/videopress.com/v/4egEyh2b |
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Post by vilepagan on Dec 30, 2020 13:23:32 GMT -8
First off, you did not respond to my question about whether you agree with shutting down elementary and high schools. If people in Japan wear a mask outdoors when they are sick, that’s reasonable. But that’s not what we’re talking about here. We’re talking about wearing a mask all the time when you’re not at home and not even sick. Hopefully you see why your analogy fails. Exactly, Pagan. I am asking for proof of efficacy before Requiring people under the age of 65 to wear a mask all the time outside their homes when they are not ill in order to avoid a fatality rate of 0.019% for those under 65. Do the math: If you do not have Covid, as some 99% don’t at any one time, your chances of transmitting the disease are zero. If you are one of the roughly 1% who presently has Covid, you should quarantine until cleared. If you are one of the 17% of that 1% who has asymptomatic Covid, your viral load is minimal and hence your chances of passing it to others is less than half of what it would otherwise be. And if you are one of those 0.17% who has current asymptomatic infection, you are still talking about an illness that has a fatality rate of 0.019% for those under the age of 65. This means that if you are under 65 and standing next to a random person who has no symptoms, your chances of dying from a Covid infection is 0.00323%. So by all means, let’s all mask up, all the time. Why bother with facts when you already have an opinion? Personally, I regard stupidity as arguing a point that you know very little about and don’t take the trouble to study the statistics. But that’s just me. So, why is it that I ‘should wear a mask just as an example to others even if it’s efficacy is in question?”................Luca First off I didn't respond to your question because I'm not interested in discussing the effect on education of the Covid virus or our response to the virus. Hopefully you understand that people can carry and transmit the Covid virus even if they don't know they are sick no matter how small the chance may be. Again I ask, is it your argument that masks do not lessen the chance of spreading the virus? Are you familiar with Mark Twain's quote about statistics? Yours are fascinating but not relevant to this discussion. Regardless of how small the chance is that you will transmit the disease you should wear a mask because people look up to you for guidance and comfort during this epidemic. Set a good example, please. |
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Credo
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,242
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Post by Credo on Dec 31, 2020 19:41:03 GMT -8
So, why is it that I ‘should wear a mask just as an example to others even if it’s efficacy is in question?”................Luca Based on the current justification for mask wearing, though, the government should legally prohibit those with HIV and other STD's from engaging in genital sexual activities with others. And obese people should not be allowed to order large portions of fatty foods at restaurants. Health risks. Financial burdens imposed on society. Unlike the less-than-useless cloth face coverings, these examples at least have a long track record of direct cause-and-effect. See where this is going? |
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MDDad
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 6,816
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Post by MDDad on Dec 31, 2020 22:27:14 GMT -8
The obvious fallacy in your analogy is that fat people can infect those around them with fattiness by ordering a double dose of cheese fries. Otherwise, your point is valid. A government that is allowed to order us to do things that make no sense and have no practical benefit, without benefit of legislation, is a totally arbitrary dictatorship.
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Luca
Master Statesman
Posts: 1,317
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Post by Luca on Jan 2, 2021 12:59:36 GMT -8
First off I didn't respond to your question because I'm not interested in discussing the effect on education of the Covid virus or our response to the virus. Hopefully you understand that people can carry and transmit the Covid virus even if they don't know they are sick no matter how small the chance may be. Again I ask, is it your argument that masks do not lessen the chance of spreading the virus? Are you familiar with Mark Twain's quote about statistics? Yours are fascinating but not relevant to this discussion. Regardless of how small the chance is that you will transmit the disease you should wear a mask because people look up to you for guidance and comfort during this epidemic. Set a good example, please. 1). I don't understand. You are discussing our response to the virus already. That is the topic this thread is now dealing with. I suspect the reason you don't want to also discuss the rationale for shutting down, for example, elementary and high schools is because it is so self evidently weak. Obligatory mask wearing is just the tip of the iceberg of the US overreaction. Many of the initial responses were sensible but were based on overly pessimistic assumptions regarding the virus's mortality rate and infectivity. We now have enough evidence to show that many of the initial responses were ineffective at best and in many cases harmful. But there have been too few appropriate adjustments in the response. This is why, for example, at the coin flip for the Notre Dame/Alabama game yesterday they had only one team captain go out for the coin flip instead of the usual 4 or 5, the justification given being to reduce the risk of transmission of Covid....... symbolic social distancing when they're going to be breathing and leaning all over each other for the next 3 hours, anyway. The semi-comic silliness is, as they say, "intuitively obvious to the most casual observer."2). We both know I understand a lot more about this virus than you ever will. My point, which you have evidently missed, is that some of the current recommendations for mask use - like many of the other recommendations - are unnecessarily restrictive and do little if any good. 3). The same is true of yours versus my understanding of the appropriate use of statistics. The initial restrictive recommendations to reduce Covid spread were based on statistics............ and those statistics were in error. Those are the ones Mark Twain was referring to, not mine. The benefit of wearing masks of dubious effectiveness in all people all the time is demonstrably weak. You seem to be of the opinion that if there is any potential benefit from everybody wearing masks all the time that it should be required. But consider that some 40,000 Americans have died on US roads as a direct result of relaxing speed limits since 1993. (Close to the 52,000 under the age of 65 who have died from Covid). And that number will continue to increase by about 2000 every year. (https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/speed-limit-increases-are-tied-to-37-000-deaths-over-25-years#:~:text=Rising%20speed%20limits%20over%20the,a%20new%20IIHS%20study%20shows.) Therefore - given your reasoning - why should we not reduce all the speed limits back to what they were in 1993?............................Luca |
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