SK80
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 7,376
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Post by SK80 on Dec 1, 2021 20:12:24 GMT -8
I still think one positive may be out there, my hunch is that eventually programs will understand to schedule UP not DOWN. Take your examples above, had Irivine a loss or two by scheduling UP in their non league games they would have dropped at least 1 division and been a contender there appropriately.
@bick & MDDad, I know you guys like to dig deep into all the numbers, think about this, now or maybe better end of season..., look at where the team ended in Calpreps ranks compared to where they were seeded or played in division playoffs. Example for you Bick being LA ended up in D1 and if I remember at #7 per Calpreps put them there. I stated then that LA likely was not a D1 team, no disrespect at all.... I just looked at the bigger picture and figured in the end they would be top 15. Well as of today Los Al is ranked #11. After all the cards drop, that kinda tells you where a team really is or was. At that ranking @bick, LA would be likely victors of D2. Lutheran, who was about #11 is now #5, all things considered they are a D1 team now via rankings.
Last thought, regarding the losses of some of these playoff teams...., is there anything they may be able to add kinda like NCAA Football does with bowls? To be bowl eligible you have to be .500? Would this not counter the tactic of over-schedule and don't care about losses because you get dropped to a division where you can mop. I see presently thats where many of the complaints are coming from.
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MDDad
Master Eminence Grise
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Post by MDDad on Dec 1, 2021 22:35:46 GMT -8
eventually programs will understand to schedule UP not DOWN. Take your examples above, had Irivine a loss or two by scheduling UP in their non league games they would have dropped at least 1 division and been a contender there appropriately. That's not true. Scheduling up and losing often increases a team's power rating more than beating a lesser team. At least four teams this year had their power ratings increase significantly after losing to Mater Dei, three of them in blowouts. That may be a fun exercise to look at where a team ranked at the end of the regular season as opposed to after the playoffs. However, it's also irrelevant. Unless you have a crystal ball or a time machine, it's not possible to place a team based on what its power rating will be after three or four playoff games. That's why we play the games. |
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sixthman13
Active Contributor
"A man is never more than a man until he has reached for something beyond his grasp."
Posts: 57
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Post by sixthman13 on Dec 2, 2021 10:55:50 GMT -8
Who decides on greying out games? The O Lu v MD game was greyed out. It might have bumped O Lu into D1. Is that the human element? This system doesn't give schools the incentive to get better. Newport used to be much better. Now they have no reason to try and get back to where they were. If they were going to be moved up, they would have to get better.
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Bick
Administrator 
Posts: 6,900
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Post by Bick on Dec 2, 2021 12:30:04 GMT -8
That's the part of the system I'm not conversant with, but assume it's because the projected score > 31 pts. I don't think humans are involved in the decision.
2021 Lutheran (Orange, CA) [71.1]
08/20 Beat Serra [Junipero] (Gardena, CA) 31-20 [opponent rating: 61.8] [performance: 76.8*]
08/27 Beat Upland (CA) 21-7 [opponent rating: 35.8] [performance: 50.8*]
09/03 Beat Edison (Huntington Beach, CA) 23-21 [opponent rating: 57.1] [performance: 72.1*]
09/10 Beat Damien (La Verne, CA) 41-38 [opponent rating: 37.6] [performance: 52.6*]
09/17 Beat Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks, CA) 42-24 [opponent rating: 30.7] [performance: 48.7]
09/30 Lost to Servite (Anaheim, CA) 56-12 [opponent rating: 93.3] [performance: 62.3**]
10/08 Lost to Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) 55-16 [opponent rating: 106.3] [performance: 75.3**]
10/15 Lost to St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) 49-25 [opponent rating: 87] [performance: 63]
10/22 Beat JSerra (San Juan Capistrano, CA) 9-7 [opponent rating: 51.7] [performance: 66.7*]
10/29 Lost to Santa Margarita (Rancho Santa Margarita, CA) 35-28 [opponent rating: 65.8] [performance: 50.8*]
11/05 Beat Simi Valley (CA) 49-13 [opponent rating: 41.8] [performance: 72.8**] [2 playoffs]
11/12 Beat Corona del Mar (Newport Beach, CA) 38-14 [opponent rating: 51.4] [performance: 75.4] [2 playoffs]
11/19 Beat Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, CA) 42-40 [opponent rating: 64.3] [performance: 79.3*] [2 playoffs]
11/27 Beat Alemany (Mission Hills, CA) 38-35 [opponent rating: 68.1] [performance: 83.1*] [2 championship]
TREND (COUNTING NON-GRAYED GAMES ONLY): SHARP UPWARD
UPCOMING:
12/03 vs Cathedral (San Diego, CA) [opponent rating: 67.4] [Bowl 1-AA playoffs] projection: Cathedral (San Diego, CA) 34 Lutheran (Orange, CA) 31
*Single game performance rating adjusted to 15 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done in order to properly credit the win itself as being the most important thing-- short of doing that, a 1-point win would nearly be equal to a 1-point loss, and of course it is not. The actual number used for this, again currently 15, may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 40th percentile of all those margins. (Capped at 15 to avoid early-season small sample size anomalies.)
**Single game performance rating may have been adjusted to 31 points above or below (depending upon win/loss) the rating of the opponent instead of using the true margin of victory. This is done so as to not reward teams for scheduling/running up the score against vastly inferior opponents. The actual number used for this, again currently 31, also may fluctuate over time as it is derived by analyzing the margin of victory of every game played nationally and taking the 63rd percentile of all those margins.
Please note that double-asterisked (and grayed out) games are considered to be less "true results" when ratings are created by the system because the margin of victory needed to be artificially decreased for the reasons mentioned above. As such, performances without the double-asterisk (truer results) are weighted much more heavily by the system in order to create the season rating for each team than are results involving mismatched teams. In other words, in cases where it appears a team is taking a hit to their rating simply because they played a very weak team...the hit indeed exists (and it's important that it does because we strongly believe in strength of schedule) but it is not as large as it appears at first glance. The rating for a team generally just ends up being roughly the average of those non-grayed out games.
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SK80
Master Eminence Grise
Posts: 7,376
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Post by SK80 on Dec 2, 2021 14:36:12 GMT -8
That may be a fun exercise to look at where a team ranked at the end of the regular season as opposed to after the playoffs. However, it's also irrelevant. Unless you have a crystal ball or a time machine, it's not possible to place a team based on what its power rating will be after three or four playoff games. That's why we play the games. I understand it's irrelevant as its after the fact or season, however my point was to look at it, use it as a guage or how well your system is playing out. Again, I don't have to look much further than our own league, a 3-7 team won CIF with a schedule much tougher than that division saw. If you can seriously get into a playoff bracket at 3-7 then why fear scheduling up a bit. And yes, playing MD with its rating and SOS rating would likely get you moved up even in a blowout loss as their ranking are in the twilight zone comparatively. |
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