MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Oct 13, 2019 10:41:42 GMT -8
I expect that Corona del Mar will be another example of a glaring deficiency in the CIF's divisional placement formula. The school has moved up in leagues and divisions largely on the backs of an outstanding quarterback and receiving corps. They will very likely get moved up to Division 1/2 just as those kids graduate, and they will suffer the consequences with lesser players.
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SK80
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Post by SK80 on Oct 14, 2019 4:54:49 GMT -8
I expect that Corona del Mar will be another example of a glaring deficiency in the CIF's divisional placement formula. The school has moved up in leagues and divisions largely on the backs of an outstanding quarterback and receiving corps. They will very likely get moved up to Division 1/2 just as those kids graduate, and they will suffer the consequences with lesser players. That would be the obvious yet peppered with a lot of assumption. Yes this senior class is a core of talent that may just be one of the greatest public school offenses a HSF team has put on the field in Orange County. And yes, that doesn't come around often when you rely on local neighborhood kids as the odds are just stacked against you. There are huge obstacles for CDM playing in the new era of student/athlete recruitment and movement. I personally would be content to represent D3 and 4 football as a public in the current CIF Divisional playoff format. However that is not entirely where I see this program going. I think you may need to look at the projection and rise of this football team at CDM going back a few more years than just this graduating class. Things really started to take shape in 2008 with the hiring of Jason Hitchens as head coach, moving away from the old ways that CDM ran its football program. Since then its been small steps mostly on the ups. League, Section and CIF Championships and an eventual CIF STATE CHAMPIONSHIP in 2013 and becoming the first high school team to go 16-0 in state history. Thank you coach Scott Meyer. The 2015 season saw the hiring of Coach Dan O'Shea. It is he and his vision that has created this rise to the top. In fact so much so that CDM right now would be in the D1 "OPEN" CIF playoff bracket based on their Calpreps power rating. They would be seeded at #5. Again, I would not want to participate in such a division with the make up of the schools that are running programs that have little to do with anything that resembles what the publics school systems are running. It's completely senseless. As O' Shea recently was quoted, "our goal is to be the best public high school football program in Orange County". I know the guy, and to your point MDDad, that won't stop here in 2019. In fact over the past 6 season even I have kept saying it will be very hard or nearly impossible to be even better next year. I've been pretty much wrong now each season passing. I agree whole heartedly MDDad that this class is beyond special, beyond what most if any HSF team will be blessed to have. But that in itself took work in todays environment to keep the talent invested in where they came from, up the ranks and to NOT be broken up by those whom tried to do so. I think it's one of the best stories of the entire 2019 season. Like most high schools, these seniors will move on and its next class up. The Newport youth teams are solid, the Frosh team looks great and beat Edison on Friday 28-7. MDDad, I am interested in your definition or observation when saying "glaring deficiency" in the present divisional placement formula. You state CDM has moved up because of one class of QB and receiving corps? Thats been going on a few more seasons than that.., this is Garbers 2.0 and crew. I think I understand what you are trying to point out non the less but how would you weight that in divisional placement? In some way you would have to stretch the running averages they use I suppose to count in performance over a longer period or "class" time on the field? |
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MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Oct 14, 2019 8:14:19 GMT -8
CDM right now would be in the D1 "OPEN" CIF playoff bracket based on their Calpreps power rating. They would be seeded at #5. MDDad , I am interested in your definition or observation when saying "glaring deficiency" in the present divisional placement formula. You state CDM has moved up because of one class of QB and receiving corps? Thats been going on a few more seasons than that.., this is Garbers 2.0 and crew. I think I understand what you are trying to point out non the less but how would you weight that in divisional placement? In some way you would have to stretch the running averages they use I suppose to count in performance over a longer period or "class" time on the field? I think the primary deficiency in the CIF placement formula is that it is based strictly on past years' performance, rather than what a team accomplishes this year, and the caliber of opponents they played and defeated. Imagine this year's Emmy and Oscar nominees being picked from what they did in 2017 and 2018, and completely ignoring their 2019 performances. Makes no sense, right? And I think "to count in performance over a longer period" would make things even worse, unless the longer period included the current year. I think having a combined Division 1/2 this year, and then determining at the end of the season which teams go into the D-1 bracket and which go into the D-2 is a step in the right direction, but there's a long way to go to achieve what seems to make the most sense: Having this year's playoff brackets reflect the quality of this year's teams. And as for Corona del Mar being ranked #5 in Calpreps, that's exactly the criteria (or another like it) that should put CdM in the D-1 playoffs next month. If they are the 5th best team in the Southern Section, by virtue of both human observation and objective algorithms, then they have no business competing in the D-3 playoffs. |
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Bick
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Post by Bick on Oct 14, 2019 10:13:44 GMT -8
Interesting paradigm MDD. Wouldn't this drastically reduce the importance of divisions (and leagues)?
How would you then assign the playoffs?
Maybe a better question is, what's the purpose of the playoffs?
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MDDad
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Post by MDDad on Oct 14, 2019 10:36:41 GMT -8
Bick, the importance of leagues has already been reduced from the days when only league champions made the playoffs. They wouldn't be reduced any further if one criteria for making the playoffs continues to be finishing in the top half of your final league standings (and/or having a .500 record or better).
The purpose of the playoffs is the same as it has always been -- winning a divisional championship in your section. Unfortunately, that goal has been subordinated since the state bowl games were instituted, and national polls became so publicized.
How about this for assigning the playoffs: If you finish in the top half of your league, you'e in. Or if you have a .500 record, you're in. That would include roughly 185 to 190 or the section's 378 schools. (Right now, 200 teams make the playoffs - 8 in D-1, and 16 in the other 12 divisions.) You take the Calpreps power ratings of those 185 to 190 teams on the Saturday morning after the last games of the season, and you place the top eight in the D-1 bracket, the next 16 in the D-2 bracket, the next 16 in the D-3 bracket, and so on until you run out of schools. (I assume there's no mystical reason for having 13 divisions, and it's a bizarre number anyway). This way, everyone will compete against teams of roughly equal ability based on this year's performance, and not what they did in 2017 and 2018.
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SK80
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Post by SK80 on Oct 14, 2019 10:42:50 GMT -8
Maybe a better question is, what's the purpose of the playoffs? So everybody can have a ring! Or so I hear some saying! But let me tell you no matter your division how hard that ring is to get. Just when you have earned it or have the best shot at it they move you up to the next division. It is still a really crappy feeling playing for the prize and coming up one game short and then have to be moved up to a higher division/strength when you couldn't win it at the present division! I think we can all agree, there is no perfect solution outside every team in one division! My guess is that wipes out half the football programs in a couple seasons! I still say separate the privates and publics, maybe have 2 or 3 divisions in private and 5 or 6 in public. |
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